The fund manager of the Axa insurance company, Axa Investment Managers, which manages around 800,000 million euros, has presented its market and economic prospects and hA pointed to the European stock market as the one that would have the most potential when having a 'positive' vision, far better than the 'neutral' that other parks like the United States or the United Kingdom would have. By sectors, and unfortunately for Telefónica, they are optimistic in all but in the one of European 'telecos', with a neutral recommendation.
This vision clashes with what the fund manager herself had a year ago. At the beginning of 2019, the firm's experts were still optimistic with stock exchanges, but saw a worse investment option in Europe compared to the United States. However, they remain optimistic with emerging stock exchanges, an asset that has not undergone changes in perception during these twelve months.
Gregory Venizelos, senior strategist at Axa IM, noted that The positioning of the manager is 'positive' in equities and bonds. On the other hand, they are 'neutral' in raw materials and 'negative' in liquidity. “Looking ahead to 2020, it may be a good year for credit again, but it cannot be taken for granted, so you have to be very careful in the selection.
At the macroeconomic level, Axa's manager expects Spain to be the fastest growing European economy on the continent by forecasting 1.5% in 2020, two tenths below the consensus forecast. For the United States, it provides 1.6%, two tenths less than experts, while for Germany it is only 0.4%. Globally, it expects the economy to grow 3.2% in 2020 and two tenths less in 2021.
Fears of a recession in the United States have been reduced over the past year and the probability that it will occur during the next twelve months has decreased from the almost 40% that it reaches during the past year to the 25% that it currently represents. The reason? The main macroeconomic risks begin to dissipate, especially with the first phase agreement of the trade war between China and the United States.
The political situation in Spain has grabbed attention. Venizelos stressed that the new coalition government of PSOE and Podemos, “will not be able to count on a stable majority” to seek the “limits of margins of maneuver in fiscal matters” So, he is not “worried” as long as he sees “unlikely” that they can carry out major reforms or fiscal measures for the weakness of the Government and for being under the magnifying glass of the European Central Bank.