Three basic simulations were created. In the first, the restrictions on leaving home and moving were completely lifted after Easter. In the second, the restrictions were maintained until the number of new infections decreased, and the number of tests remained at the current level. Meanwhile, the third maintained restrictions, increased the number of tests and further isolation of already infected people.
“According to the most optimistic forecast we currently have, i.e. the third simulation, while maintaining restrictions (lockdown) at an appropriate level and increasing the number of tests performed, which is currently happening, the probability of ending the epidemic by the end of May could be 44 percent, and by the end of July already 78 percent. Interestingly, clear inhibition should be visible already in the second half of April“- we can read in the report.
In the second simulation, less optimistic, i.e. loosening the restrictions on leaving home and moving on and after Easter, will translate into the fact that Poland will witness an increase in the number of infected “tens of thousands of people, as is the case in Italy and Spain“.
Meanwhile, in the first simulation, when the government decides to completely close the lockdown in mid-April, it is the peak of the diseasewill fall in the second half of May and can reach levels of several million“. “The number of deceased people can go to tens of thousands, and the epidemic will end only during the holidays“.
The most advantageous variant for us is the third, which provides for imposing further restrictions and at the same time increasing public awareness that he must stay at home and maximally limit contacts. Then we have the chance to save ourselves, loved ones and friends, as well as save the economy and end the pandemic in Poland with great success during the holidays. It all depends on us!
The analysis was based on the improved version of the SEIR epidemiological model commonly used for coronavirus. Aplhamoon has expanded the model, including on the value of illnesses, deaths and recoveries, and also included asymptomatic or untested patients.
Source: GeekWeek.pl/Aplhamoon/Polsat News / Photo. Pixabay