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They noticed that something was wrong with the official numbers and decided to check. Claudio Cancelli, a health entrepreneur, and Luca Foresti, mayor, both physicists, analyzed the historical data of Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. Here the number of deaths officially attributed to the coronavirus is 31. But, according to the two scholars, “they would be at least four times more”. The reason illustrate it at Corriere della Sera, with data in hand: “Many deaths – they say – are not classified as Covid-19 because they do not swab dead people”
According to the average deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January – March, Nembro should have had – under normal conditions – about 35 deaths. 158 registered by the municipal offices this year (123 more than the average): not 31 more, therefore. If you look at when these deaths occurred and compare the same period with previous years, you notice that there is a spike in “other” deaths at the level of official deaths since Covid-19.
It is extremely reasonable to think that these excess deaths are largely elderly or frail people who die at home or in residential facilities, without being hospitalized and without being swabbed to verify that they were actually infected with Covid-19. Given the decline seen in the last few days after the peak, flock immunity is likely to be achieved in Nembro.
According to the two physicists, it is necessary to analyze the data of the individual municipalities in which there are at least 10 deaths for official Covi-19 and check if they correspond to the real deaths. Their fear is that not only the number of infected people does not correspond to reality (given the asymptomatic and tampons that are not carried out), but that the number of deaths is also not the real one.
The numbers of Nembro also suggest that we must take those of official deaths and multiply them by at least 4 to have the real impact of Covid-19 in Italy, at this time.